prior entry: DEC 30
Closing Entry: There is really no need to do a whole lot of blabbering. There is enough blabber on CNBC all day long and it is all meaningless. The market has been going sideways all this time. Nothing has changed in the analysis. The short position is heavy and more and more analysts are going bearish. The news has been that things will get worse. Meanwhile, I have been saying that you should not go short or be short at this time. I have also asked you to keep a good watch on the chart of the major averages to keep track of the reverse head and shoulders pattern. A drop below S&P 850 would be a warning signal and a drop below 820 would signal a very bearish move. We have not seen such a warning as yet. We wait or stay long. The S&P is now very close to going over the 50 day average line. Watch that line for a movement, because a close above that line is bullish. The first trading sessions of the new year could be very important. I wish everyone a very Happy New Year.
prior entry: DEC 24
Closing Entry: Christmas Eve. There was a glitch caused by the server on this Wednesday. Now back online just in time to wish all of you a Merry Christmas. Everything that has been said will still stand. The market simply has to stay above the level of the present right and left shoulder pattern on the charts. Any break below the shoulder pattern will mean serious trouble on any of the major averages. Right now, it is still holding above that level.
prior entry: DEC 19
Morning Report: (12:00 ET) There are bullish patterns on the S&P and Nasdaq. A move above 920 on the S&P would mean a breakout. The Nasdaq is showing that a move above the 1600 level would represent a breakout. The Nasdaq pattern is a rising triangle with a flat top and that top represents the breakout. We should soon find out how this resolves. Both Ford and GM were buys during recent lows. It just goes to show you how market prices go to extremes. There is no way the government was going to let these two firms go under. Now the Ford and GM execs are talking about making some real good cars.....finally....now that they are pressed to the wall. Meanwhile, oil has dropped to the 35 level, and they said that it could not be done. Okay, the experts said that 35 oil was forever impossible. Stick with stocks like ENER and the small one like QTWW for the longer term. The electric hybrid car will be the standard before very long as it should have been already. The time will come when the Arab leaders will have to cut back on their gambling trips to Dubai, Vegas and all the European casinos.
prior entry: DEC 17
Closing Report: Oil is now at the 40 level and will most likely go lower. You can now see how things in the market can go to extremes. An extreme situation is something that is not normal nor is it sustainable over a longer period of time. However, the oil situation does show that the economy is in trouble, but the situation itself may also show that it is good for an economic recovery. When oil did go over 140, did you ever believe that we would see 35 or 40 ever again? If you had a truck, the dealer did not even want to talk to you unless you were willing to buy one from the lot. Gas is now at 1.42 here in North Idaho. People can drive trucks again and they are. Although gas is down so low, some people are still in denial and are still in fear of driving their trucks. What about the stock market? I have been short term bullish. However, if I had the power to control the market as some may have, I would rally and then I would lower the boom on investors again. Those in control with money can really accumulate at much lower levels, because the media is playing along with the buildup of fear. On the positive side, we can say that lower oil prices will place a burden on the terrorist faction. However, the terrorist faction will soon commit acts that may raise oil prices to a more realistic level.
prior entry: DEC 16
Closing Report: Everything that I stated in my prior report stands. So far, the chart has held that reverse head and shoulders pattern. This is not the time to sell. All positions should now be held. As I have been implying recently, the amount of selling by institutions has been declining which has been a bullish sign. A tech like RIMM looks good because even a drastic reduction in earnings has already been discounted in the price. The fact remains that people will not sacrifice the smart phone just because of the economy. These phones are now turning into necessities instead of luxuries in the minds of the consumer.
prior entry: DEC 14
Sunday Report: Although the S&P dipped from the recent rally, it still looks okay on the chart if it can hold that left shoulder level. As I have been saying, there is a reverse head and shoulders pattern on the chart. While most people remain highly negative, I am feeling more positive about buying at these levels. Ford and GM will be saved since the new Administration owes a whole bunch to the Auto Workers Union. The Fed will also lower rates again. Although the economy looks bad on the surface, you have to realize that the internal strength of this nation has not been compromised. The news media is presenting a false picture of this whole affair. The so-called greed that runs this nation is still in place unless the liberals decide to totally destroy the American economic engine.
prior entry: DEC 8
Midday Report: (12:00 ET) The market has formed some sort of bottom according to all the numbers that I have seen concerning the number of stocks that have stopped going lower compared to stocks that are still dropping to new lows. This is near term bullish. However, since the economy is in a very weak stage any advance here is not going to be great. The important thing right now is that risk has been decreased by a lot. Buying should have been done last week. Even Ford and GM were a buy along with many of the banking stocks and techs. I also mentioned about the reverse head and shoulders pattern on the charts. If you bought, hold for a further advance. However, the recovery will take several months for sure.
prior entry: DEC 5
Midday Report: (3:15 ET) Has anything changed to justify a commentary? For the past several sessions, the market has done nothing. I see one positive as I look at the charts. There could be a reverse head and shoulders formation on the S&P. If that holds, it will mean that we have already seen a bottom. The decline of today did not even go down to the prior recent low. This is a good sign. Those that have money should be buying now. Over the past two days, RIMM has been downgraded by just about every analyst. This is what happens near a bottom. When all the downgrades have been done, where else can it go? Apple is also showing signs of holding well at the 90 level. This is the wrong time to be selling.
prior entry: NOV 24
Morning Report: (11:00 ET) This rally is now looking good. It is times like this when investors should be interested in the market. Instead, I am seeing the same old thing with people. When the market is hitting the top, everyone and his uncle is going in. Now that we are near the bottom, everyone is in a state of hibernation. Wake up people. If you cannot play this game, get out. The economy goes on. At this point, you should consider that the market is still heavily shorted and that institutional selling is drying out.
prior entry: NOV 21
Midday Report: (11:30 ET) This is options expiration, and therefore anything can happen by the close. If we are at or near a bottom, next week should produce some sort of near term advance.....bear market rally. We have been through a crash although the media has not given it a title. This has been the Crash of 08. A major stock like Citi-Group goes from the 20 level to below 4. What do you call that? Bernanke is not even much in the news. That is because the Fed has lost control and can do almost nothing, and so we get the bailout plan. Bernanke, himself, has failed to control bank policies. Bank management, in general, is lacking the courage to initiate new ideas to save its home loans. A bank would still rather write off a home loan than try to save the loan by lowering payments. Banking mentality is just archaic. The men and women of courage that would be needed are nowhere in sight. Everyone is tied with the chains of policy. No one has the courage to put their ass on the line and do something new. You can survive a down economy if you are innovative. J. Paul Getty did it. You go around picking up all the parts and pieces that are discarded by the fallen ones. The economy will always come back with a new set of noveau rich. The bottom of this market may be fuzzy and a little prolonged. So what! It will give you time to pick up all those discarded pieces that will once again go up in value. This can be stocks, personal property and other items.
prior entry: NOV 20
Closing Report: The market came crashing back at the close to the lows of the day. These levels are now super critical. We have an extreme movement with people jumping out in fear. Of course, this is not normal. Nothing ever is normal near a bottom. However, we are at the moment of truth. Will it hold or crash. The S&P looks bad while the Dow is matching the 02 lows. Certain techs like Apple are now at major support levels. We are still waiting for a spark that can turn this around.
Morning Report: (10:15 ET) Within 30 minutes of the open, the major averages did hit my target for the low. I was looking for a little below 800 on the S&P which is the 2002 low. We now wait to see how the rally goes. Any major break below the early morning lows would represent a disaster.
prior entry: NOV 19
Closing Report: The drop today is setting things up for a near term bottom. The S&P is getting close to that critical 800 level, and Thursday morning could do it. We need a sharp selloff into the morning. I have noticed that institutional selling has dried.
Midday Report: (11:00 ET) Nothing has changed in the prognosis. The S&P still wants to go down to that 800 level. I suspect that it may go below that level. However, at that time, the chance of a better rally may develop. For now, the chart patterns remain bearish on some of the key stocks like Apple and RIMM. However, a sudden sharp decline may set things up for an advance. We are looking at ten year lows.
prior entry: NOV 14
Closing Report: As I have been saying, the S&P wants to go to that 10 year low on the 10 year chart which is the 800 level. This could happen very soon by early in the week. Apple looks like it wants to go to that 80 to 85 range. We could very well see an upside reversal if it all spikes down quickly. Despite all the bad news, there is money around that could rally prices from these cheap levels. We wait to buy on any spike down.
prior entry: NOV 12
Midday Report: (1:00 ET) When times are like this, what is the point of reporting something each day. Nothing has changed for days and days. Whatever I may have said weeks ago will still stand. Yes, the market is near a bottom, but it may still go a little lower to the 10 year chart low. That would take the S&P to about 800. Although the media does not say so, we have gone through a crash.....the crash of 08. When China went down, we should have known at that time. This has nothing to do with Bush. This would have happened no matter who was president. It is global excess correcting itself. GM is at 3....isn't that just great! Actually, GM may even be a buy at these levels. The Democrats want to bail it out when Obama takes office. It may even go a little lower....so be patient. For the general market, the MACD line is the lowest on record which means that we could get another hit while we wait for some good news. At least the gas is down with regular at $1.89 in my area. The badness of it all may have climaxed with oil topping. However, the effects of that negative climax will take a few months to ease out. I am surprised that the Democrats are actually pushing the relief for the auto makers. I believe that the unions are pushing it. Otherwise, the Auto Workers Union and the AFL&CIO may go under with GM. The major unions have crippled the industry so now what do you want. Even the vampires are now worried that the blood supply may run out if the GM blood producing body should die. The Congress will do all that is possible to make Obama look good to give him the credit for saving the economy. That is politics. Although the Democrats countered McCain on the issues, I now believe that the Democrats will most likely carry out everything that McCain wanted to do. We wait for S&P 800 unless a miracle occurs in the meantime.
prior entry: NOV 5
Midday Report: (1:00 ET) The bearish alert continues. Although the S&P closed slightly above 1000 (resistance) yesterday, it dropped well below that line today. It looks like Wall Street does not like Obama. This whole affair does not look good. The futures were once again highly negative during the night after the election results and never recovered. The VIX index never closed below the line that would have confirmed bullishness. At this point, caution is advised unless Obama can come across in a positive way about business policy. The only distribution of wealth that we may see will be poverty for everyone. I can only advise that you invest in yourself instead of placing your trust in the system. Meanwhile, keep a watch on that S&P chart, because we do not want to see another move to the lows.
prior entry: NOV 3
Midday Report: (12:30 ET) The S&P chart is worth a look. If the S&P can close above 1000, then we have a good chance for a move to upper resistance at 1100. Today's close could determine a signal for a further rally. On Wednesday, we will know how the market takes the winner of the election. I still see that certain power stocks like Apple and RIMM are not really on par with the market averages. The averages are going up so much merely because so many of those stocks had gone down so low. In other words, if each of the composite stocks merely goes up a little it will have a big effect on the average. While some money can be made on the present advance, the bear market is not over. However, there is a chance that we have seen the lows. If I see any clues that may counter that notion, I will report. If the S&P cannot close or stay above 1000 over the next two or three days, then the market will be in trouble again.
prior entry: NOV 1
Saturday Report: There should be a post-election rally no matter who wins. However, such an advance may not mean the end of the bear market. What occurs after the initial rally may depend on who wins. In reality, the economy will continue to move without regard to who wins. This is because the president really does not control the trend of the economy as some may believe. The economy goes through cycles of up and down extremes. The economy would have gone sour no matter who had won the last election. The easy way out is to blame Bush for everything. If Kerry had won, this whole situation may be even worse. Look at oil. Most analysts were saying that oil was not going below $100 for a long time to come. The American people were in a panic. Everything was blamed on Bush. Well, oil is now down. Gas is going for 2.25 in my area. So let's blame Bush for oil going down. Oil was driven up by speculation and it went to an extreme just like the housing market. I really have to say some bad things about Pelosi. She keeps saying that the Bush policies failed. They did not fail. It was Congress that failed to take action. It did not take action because the members were all taking advantage of the money coming in from the heated economy. This occurred in China as well. So here we are. The situation is pathetic. However, the economy will recover no matter who wins, but there will always be someone that will take credit for the recovery. If the short interest begins to unravel, the advance could be very good and very sudden. The banks are looking better, but we could still be facing a credit card disaster. Credit card defaults could turn into a big landslide.
prior entry: OCT 29
Midday Report: (2:30 ET) If the market can hold above that W formation pattern right up the election on Tuesday, it would be a big positive. Once the election is resolved, we could see a further advance well above these recent lows on a permanent basis. Positions should be taken here on any near term decline. According to my sources, it does seem as if institutional selling has declined while the power stocks have been rising well off the bottom.
prior entry: OCT 24
Morning Report: (10:30 ET) The market has broken the recent W formation pattern on the charts. Therefore, the S&P is now inclined to go further down to a 10 year low at the 800 level. As I have been saying, nothing big will happen to the upside until the election is resolved. If short, stay short. Otherwise, next week may be a good time to look into long positions.
prior entry: OCT 20
Closing Report: Upper resistance on the S&P is around 1100. Resistance on Nasdaq is just above 1900. We do see a W formation on the charts which is positive. We may have already seen a downside extreme. This means that now we will merely see a balance between recent lows and upper resistance. There should be less volatility as time goes on. Do not expect any major upside move until after the election. The oil panic is now over. As you can see, things go to an extreme and people will react to an extreme. The economy is the same way. It goes up and it goes down. Why haven't people learned this about the economy? The reason is that the media does not teach. The media makes money by creating excitement and panic. I am telling you that the economy is not as bad as being portrayed by the media. It has simply gone into a down cycle which is normal. What has occurred in the economy would have occurred no matter who was president. The economy will now recover no matter who becomes the president. Just worry about your own positions in the market. Now is the time to begin buying for the longer term. A note on COPY: If you had followed my advice in the first place you would have made money year after year. You buy COPY at the .50 level and sell at the 1 level. Just look at the 5 year chart and do not fall for all the garbage that is rumored about this stock. Right now it is cheap again until it goes back over to $1.
prior entry: OCT 16
Midday Report: (2:00 ET) Let's be realistic about what is going on. The market is in a slide and with good reason.....almost like what occurred in 1974. We are talking about a continual slide where $5 stocks go to $1 and $1 stocks go to 25 cents. Starbucks has already gone from $20 to $10 in a short period of time. Yes, stocks are going to book value and below. We have seen this before. All we can do is to buy when you feel that things are so cheap that you just can't go wrong over a one year period. This will work for stocks that have a real value and not just pie in the sky. You now have to look at a 10 year chart to see support on the major averages. Also, have you noticed that oil has come down to the $70 mark. While this may be good news for your car usage, it means trouble in the economy. Most of the experts would have guesssed wrong about oil....since most of them were saying that oil would never go back down. Well, here it is. Oil is now over 50% down from its high. It does mean trouble when even the oil speculators and other traders have run for the hills with their money. The economy will remain weak. The market will turn upward before the economy actually improves. The election in November could be an intermediate turning point. The way I look at it is as follows: McCain.....trickle down prosperity. Obama....trickle up poverty. The market is waiting to find out if we will remain under present principles or if we will become socialists. If you lose every cent in this market slide, I guess that you will be so poor that you will actually welcome the idea of distribution of wealth like all the other losers in society. GOD HELP US!
prior entry: OCT 14
Morning Report: We have now seen one bottom. However, it may not be over since there is always the chance of a double bottom or W formation in the near future. Right now it does seem as if the banks will survive. The next big problem could be credit card debt. The leveraged problem with cards is that it is unsecured debt and the amount is huge with increasing defaults. The write-offs in this sector could be tremendous. Meanwhile, Friday's low was an extreme followed by Monday's extreme rally movement. For now, this means that we perhaps should be neutral on being either long or short and simply watch the radical movements.
prior entry: OCT 9
Closing Entry: We are going another leg down as this thing crashes. We now must look at 10 year charts. Will the Dow find support at 8000 or 7000. The market is clearly going to an extreme. If you can enter at the bottom, you will make bunches of money. However, we are in October and we are waitng for the election. Obama is not helping any. There is a definite fear that Obama is bad news for Wall Street. However, IBM is still forecasting good results. We wait for the techs to report. Note: Short selling has resumed. This means further downside. It may also mean that the bounce will be big when it happens.
prior entry: OCT 7
Midday Report: (2:00 ET) We are now tinkering with either crash or support. Any close below the recent lows on the following will mean some real problems. Dow 9500 S&P 1013 NAS 1782 . If you are still short, then stay short. If you have bought expecting a bottom, then you would have to consider getting out if this crashes through. According to all indicators, the market is grossly oversold. However, this type of situation also occurs just before a crash. The election continues to be a problem so long as Obama gains on the polls. The other problem is that investors really do not know how the bailout is going to be employed. We have too many uncertainties all at the same time.
prior entry: OCT 6
Closing Entry: The market has been going down because of who might become president. However, in the process, it is getting extremely oversold. The turmoil will continue right up to the election. Also it is a fact that the baliout money will take time to emplement. People now want to see results. Meanwhile, we have quarterly reports coming out soon. We may have seen one bottom here as volume dried with so many new lows. Also, at one point, every Dow stock was down. Apple was down by over 10 points and then closed almost even for the day. Remember that the overnight futures are still being manipulated by those who have the power to do so. Last night (Sunday night) the Dow futures were already down by over 160 points.
prior entry: OCT 2
Closing Report: How many times in history have we seen this grind and screwing of the American investor? The market is taken down as investsor after investor is forced out. The SEC and all other government officials care nothing about the investor. There is no one that even stands up for you. Once these investors have sold out for peanuts, the stock price goes up well above where it was sold. This process can happen over just a few days. Meanwhile, no one seems to notice that the futures which trade overnight are being manipulated by a force that is never investigated by the SEC. I believe that the SEC should be investigated. Meanwhile, it may be too late to go short because this thing could turn on a dime.
prior entry: OCT 1
Closing Report: The market remains oversold but remains in limbo due to the situation in Washington. The short interest remains high. Fear is still being injected into the media with commentary regarding a slowing economy. As I have been saying, the VIX being so high will most likely mark a market bottom. If the bailout bill does not pass again, then we could see another dive. The tech stocks are waiting for the decision in Washington. All indicators are showing oversold and heavily shorted with plenty of money on the sidelines since the institutions have not been buying very much for several weeks now.
prior entry: SEP 29
Closing Report: Apple went right down to a level that I had originally predicted several months ago. It went down to a long term gap on the chart at the 100 level. This now could mean a bottom. A bunch of downgrades could also very well mark a bottom. The VIX is now at a record high level which signals a market bottom. The bailout vote merely expressed the speed of a capitulation . The sun will rise tomorrow. The market is heavily shorted and money is on the sidelines. It is too late to short now but long positions should now be attempted in the established stocks.
prior entry: SEP 26
Midday Report: (12:30 ET) The market waits for the band-aid solution to take effect. Not along ago, I said to just get out of the market and wait. Sure there should be a rally out of this. However, this market is no longer a place where you should place all of your money. There are just too many crazy things going on that totally throw out the principles of technical analysis and logic. A short term rally has come to mean one day. RIMM crashed today simply because it did not meet what some joker analyst was expecting. Sure, Buffet invested in GoldmanSachs. Big deal! Look at the options that he got as a guarantee. You and me could never get such a deal. All that we are seeing in the market is that the nature of the crooks is changing. The odds are piling even greater against the average invester. There is no logic when you are playing in a casino against those that control the logic. Perhaps even the rally that may come out of this will not be in line with any logic. Even if you are now long, you will not know when to sell. There is simply no clarity for the investor. We have record high levels on the VIX index, and usually a high level will mark a market low. When people are most in fear, that is when the bottom comes.
prior entry: SEP 23
Midday Report: (3:00 ET) Despite all of the bad news, the market now does seem to want to advance over the near term. Capitulation is now turning into a joke since it investors have now been jumping out of windows for several days now. Even GoldmanSachs is starting to look good at this time. Warren Buffet is now behind GS.
Sunday Report: The physical body of the stock market has changed just recently with the downfall of the major brokerage firms and other types like AIG. The advance off the bottom was okay, but this market is still not a buy. We are seeing artificial attempts to stabilize the market. It will be just a matter of time. I still think that a stock like Apple may go down to that 105 level and touch on a chart gap. The problem with the market right now is that the big trading firms have been disrupted. These firms carried a lot of power with control prior to the present problems. These firms were able to take the maket down and then take it up at will when they covered short positons. Now, much of this has changed. The power to take the market up has declined......at least over the near term until other concerns take over these big trading firms. Over the near term, the market is vulnerable to a big downside decline while the ownership adjustments are made with structures like Merrill, BearStearns, MorganStanley, Lehman and others, etc. The money that these firms could throw at the market is what kept the market going higher. Now, the market has lost the power to push upward. This is going to be a serious problem which has not yet been addressed on CNBC. I am the first to proclaim that the shift in brokerage power on Wall Street has become a serious matter. There is a very good chance that there may be other insurance firms that invest in the markets that may go broke.
prior entry: SEP 19
Midday Report: (1:00 ET) I have decided to maintain a red alert on the market. Although the market is advancing short term, long positions should be watched. The situation is still not good. The steps that have been taken by the Fed and Treasury did boost the market but these actions are more like bandaids. It also shows just how serious the problem really is. Next week will give us more clues off the indicators. Right now we are merely coming off an oversold bottom with short covering.
prior entry: SEP 18
Closing Report: All day long the market was kept down as investors unloaded. It was purposely made to look like the end of the world was coming. It was heavy volume. Then, in the last moments, it was as if the Messiah had landed. Those of you that are smart enough to know just how crooked this market really is.....should really get a big laugh out of this. That is all we can do. Those in control have all the power. I did state that whenever the VIX index goes to the 35 level it usually means a market bottom.
Midday Report: A bottom continues to be formed. Today I saw them take down a few tech stocks in the usuall crooked fashion in order to clean out all those poor souls that were on margin. That is what they do on Wall Street. Those market makers who know where all the stops are located merely took down prices in order to clean out the stops. So now that damage has been done to thousands of average investors, those in control place new shorting rules. They picked a good time....after the damage has been done. So now AIG is going to be replaced by Kraft Foods in the Dow next week. They finally realized that there were too many financials in the Dow. They should have realized that long ago. An insurance company never should have been put in the Dow in the first place. Is it not amazing that all those who pretend to be so smart.....so above all of us.....are the ones that turn out to be so wrong and prove themselves to be so below all of us.
prior entry: SEP 17
Closing Report: For the first time I heard someone on CNBC go up against the shorting problem. Ailman, CEO of Calstrs stated that naked short selling was bringing down the market in a conspiracy fashion. He said that short sellers were going after GoldmanSachs and MorganStanley and others in order to ruin the stock on purpose. He further stated that he and others were arranging meetings with the SEC to stop naked shorting by hedge funds. It finally took some hurting by the big guys in order to wake everybody up. Until now, Wall Street never wanted to admit that there were people out there that conspired to ruin firms by shorting the hell out of a stock. This also confirms my contention that the market is crooked. The bad part in all this is that the SEC has taken no action and has allowed this to go on for years.
Midday Report: (3:00 ET) I noticed from one of my sources that there is now forming a bullish divergence between the July lows number for the leadership stocks going down. While the averages are now lower, the number of leadership stocks going down has actually improved. This means that leadership stocks are actually holding better than what the averages are indicating. This market could now be very close to a bottom. In other words, stocks like IBM have held well into today.
Midday Report: (12:15 ET) The averages are once again pushing the downside limits on support. Although it looks bad as per my recent warning, I would like to point out the VIX chart. Whenever the VIX has been this high, it always meant an upside reversal. The VIX has been this high only three other times.
prior entry: SEP 16
Morning Report: The early decline looked like a classic selloff. It went down with a samll bounce and then a secondary decline. Now we wait. We must see a recovery today for this to be good. Remember this is the critical level between crash and rally. The odds are good for a rally since the short interest is very heavy.
prior entry: SEP 15
Closing Report: The major averages have now hit the level of the July lows. If there is a decline on Tuesday morning, we could see a bounce. If we get no rally, then we have real trouble. Tuesday is now a climax day one way or the other.
Morning Report: The averages are now very close to major support and this is now very critical. If there is any bounce here, it would have to be strong. Otherwise, this market could really sink. This is still not the right time to buy. This is not the right time to buy even if trying to play on a bounce. The financial problems with the big banking concerns are not over. We now wait to see if technical support can hold.
prior entry: SEP 12
Morning Report: As you can see, Thursday's rally did not carry through. This market is clearly in trouble unless something major occurs soon. A break below support would signal another leg down. Support is as follows: Dow 10750, S&P 1200, NAS 2170, QQQQ 41. The QQQQ is indicating trouble because it is now showing more weakness than the NAS comp by being below the July low. This is serious. If it breaks down, the next support will be Dow 10750, S&P 1800, NAS 2000. Whatever the case, this is not the time to be buying unless something major occurs that is very bullish. Eventually, the Fed may have to lower rates again or we must get beyond the election.
prior entry: SEP 11
Closing Report: As you will notice from any chart, the major averages were pushing those lower limits. For now, it held at that lower support and a bounce is to be expected. We now wait to see if the rally is good enough and if the indicators over the next two or three days will validate an advance.
prior entry: SEP 10
Midday Report: (12:30 ET) Here we go again with another rally as the big guys continue to dump. You should notice that the most popular stocks such as RIMM and Apple are not responding to the upside on each market rally. What does this mean? It means that the leadership stocks are continually trending lower. This is a bearish sign. Stay out of the market unless you have some special situation. In order for this market to turn bullish, something of a very powerful nature would have to be forced upon it. For now we look to see if the major support levels hold.
Morning Report: My prior chart of September 4th will stand. The market is going nowhere. The institutions are still dumping on each rally. Investors should wait until the indicators turn better. The election may also cause the market to stagnate or go lower over the coming weeks. This is one election that will have an effect on the market until it is resolved in early November.
prior entry: SEP 4
Midday Report: (1:00 ET) The rally attempt never broke clearly to the upside. At this time, the warning alert continues. The market indicators are getting weaker. I got the following chart from one of my sources. As you cans see, the institutions are not buying. They have been dumping on each rally. You can see that the MACD line is looking similar to a prior decline that occurred.
prior entry: AUG 28
Midday Report: (1:00 ET) The short term advance movement has started from the oversold chart readings on Monday. We now wait to see what happens as the upper range is tested. The Nasdaq looks to be the most bullish at this time. Actually the Nasdaq chart pattern gave the most clue that the market would hold for now. The VIX index remains bullish for stocks at this time. Stocks like Apple and RIMM may well test their upper ranges.
prior entry: AUG 25
Closing Report: For the short term, the market has once again turned positive. The S&P could now reach the gap at 1320. The stochastic indicators are showing a short term upward move supported by the VIX index. The drop this Monday could have been a fake-out.
prior entry: AUG 22
Closing Report: I simply could not believe that investors were actually buying on dismal news this Friday. I heard nothing but negative words from Bernanke and bad numbers about the economy. Yet, they drove the averages up like a stampede of bulls. As I have already stated, keep an eye on the S&P chart and on the Nasdaq chart. The trading range is very tight. If the market cannot break above that range this week, we could be in for a bad tumble. The major players are unloading on every rally. We also have an election coming up which is totally in question. Be careful at this point.
Morning Report: (10:30 ET) Another short term rally was to be expected considering that indicators were showing oversold. This rally that we see this morning was sparked by Bernanke. However, I do not see much in his speech that is really very positive. The media and analysts are chasing rainbows. This rally will allow the big mutual funds to unload more stock. Now we just watch the charts to see how it measures up once indicators turn overbought next week. The upper and lower range of resistance and support has tightened, and so it will not take long to find out about the length of these gyrations.
prior entry: AUG 12
Closing Report: As this advance continues on the charts, there is much more to talk about. It comes as a warning that the market is not good at present. Unless something major occurs on the bullish side, this market is getting weaker. The chart which represents institutional buying continues to show that the major players are not buying and that they may well be unloading on a rally which is being fueled by the small guys. Meanwhile, we have the weak months of the year coming up. You should be able to see from any chart of the major averages that we are once again getting into resistance levels. There may be some stocks like Apple that may go just a little higher. I noticed that Credit Suisse placed an outperform on Apple today. Investors should not be buying Apple based on an upgrade at this time. This could well be another dirty trick by a major player. These guys have an SEC license to be legally crooked.
prior entry: AUG 11
Midday Report: (11:30 ET) While we are once again on a short term advance, China has broken support to the downside. American investors are not being properly informed concerning the China situation. Shanghai is crashing......pure and simple. It will affect us. I have been saying all along that it was foolish for us to invest in China just as it was foolish and naive for us to have invested in Russia. These two nations are not in tune with capitalism. Look at this chart again. Yet, there is no alarm being sent by CNBC to the public. It is as if Shanghai no longer matters.
prior entry: AUG 8
Midday Report: (3:00 ET) As I stated a few days ago, talking about the market would have been just a waste of time. So many stocks have done nothing. I did say that we were merely going into a short term rally. We have now seen that rally. It may even go longer, but the problem has not gone away. The problem is that the major players are not buying big. We also have the fact that China has gone through a major crash and it is not over yet. It was just last year that the news media was pouncing on the idea that so many Chinese were enjoying the new wealth trying to get Americans to through even more money into the Shanghai pot. Well, so much for that. The only thing that still looks good although high in price would be the alternative energy stocks such as ENER and other smaller issues that are working on electric and hydrogen power for engines. Stocks like Apple and RIMM are doing well, but certain insiders could take these down in order to buy as present holders are forced out. You should know all about that trick by now. As a result, it may be better to maintain a cash position until the fog clears for those of us that realize that the market is crooked. We will continually look for clues. For now we should keep tabs on the Dow and S&P charts to see if the numbers can break above present resistance levels which is where we are not at. I have already implied that oil could take a hit and it has. It should go lower, but at this point, it would not mean that the stock market will turn longer term bullish because of lower oil.
prior entry: July 31
Midday Report: (12:15 ET) At this time, too much talk about the market is a complete waste of time. It all becomes just a bunch of static coming at you. That is why I have eased off on the commentary. When I do say something, it means that it is more important. As you can see, the market is up one day and down the next by as much as 200 points. Because of the big movements, it gives the impression that something is really happening. At present, we have a short term rally. It will remain short term unless the chart pattern is broken to the upside. The overall trend remains bearish as can be seen from any chart. Trying to make money on short term moves is not good at this time.
I would aslo like to make one other comment about the Shanghai market. It is over 50% down from the highs. The media has not emphasized this. A 50% dive is to be considered a crash. It is a crash in China. What else can you call it! Yet, I have not heard it described as such on CNBC. Those idiot analysts on CNBC seem to think that is okay to be invested in China. Apple has the right idea in selling iphones to the Chinese. Others have the wrong idea in buying from the Chinese.
We now find ourselves in a pre-election period. President Bush is being blocked by a Democrat Congress. Because of politics, the economy is being driven down. Some analysts seem to think that it is okay to cut back on gas consumption. Does anyone out there really know economics? If people cut back on travel, it will have an effect on the economy. We are driven by the use of the car. So, now what? We have a Bush/Pelosi crap-off, and we are the ones in front of the fan as the crap hits. Stay out of the market. The tech stocks are not moving up because of the financials. Without tech leadership, we have nothing. I do believe that the credit card firms may not be so firm if people cannot pay on those cards. I have noticed recently that the card people are becoming more and more willing to make deals with card holders. This leads me to believe that things are getting worse. Meanwhile, we should keep an eye on the S&P chart to see if it can hold above the recent lows. Any move below those lows will mean disaster. Do not expect stocks to go up just because oil may go down.
prior entry: JUL 26
Saturday Report: We have now seen a short term rally which does show up clearly on the Dow and S&P charts. I anticipated this rally and waited several days to see if it had legs. I have now noticed that the 50 day average line has gone below the 100 day line. This is hardly ever a good sign. Although we may still see some upside action, I would not bet your home on it. Unless something big happens soon for the positive, we will see further weakness. The financials are the key factor in all this. If the institutions are not buying the financials, this market will not go up. It is true that the market will usually bottom when things look the darkest. However, it may not yet be dark enough. We should keep in mind that the banking system is run and operated by incompetent people. The major banks are in trouble because of those at the top and not because of those at the branch level. The upper management levels have been infiltrated by Wall Street characters whose mentality is geared toward liberal expansion instead of conservative restraint. Our banks should be centered on the interests of American welfare. Instead, our banks are squeezing the American people in order to invest in foreign soil. If you look at a 5 year chart of the Dow, you will see that the average lines have turned negative (50 day under the 100 day) for the first time in just over four years.
prior entry: JUL 15
Closing Report: Despite all of the ups and downs day after day, the general market has not broken to the downside on the charts. The odds are improving that some sort of bounce will occur soon. Oil is also getting too far out on a limb with nothing but bulls in the oil pits around the world.
prior entry: JUL 10
Midday Report: (1:45 ET) Is everyone enjoying the fun and games of those that control the market? Up and down and up again. Each day the market can be directed by the placement of news releases. Yestereday, it was Iran shooting test missiles. Today, it is Iran not shooting test missiles. Meanwhile, you folks are getting cleaned out little by little until all the money is in the hands of those select few that have the power to direct the market with control over the media and well-placed hedge funds with control links to major brokerage firms. Sure, we should all know that the market is crooked by now. You have all been knifed in the back enough times to know that, but no one complains. No one complains, because you all believe that you can still beat the system however crooked it may be. Between now and the election, a lot can happen in the market. We could see a big rally, and then we could see new lows all in a short period of time. The point is that you will always be kept sitting on the edge of a blade. Many of you that read my comments and use the message board are holders of COPY. If ever there was a prime example of keeping people on the edge, it is CopyTele. Up and down it goes as insiders play their games. I have always said that all stocks fall into a trading range of highs and lows. Stocks were made to be traded within a chart channel. When the news looks very promising, you should sell. There are only a few stocks that may at times counter that over the longer term. Several years ago US Steel looked bad while GN looked good. Today, it is just the opposite. The world operates without logic except for nature. Money is what throws logic out the window. China gives missiles to Iran to counter our interests. Meanwhile, we are sending iphones to China to make profit. We help the Chinese for the sake of money, and the Chinese use the power to counter us. We will now give them Starbucks coffee so that all those Chinese engineers can wake up early in the morning so that they can design better weapons to use against us. Just joking..... but good luck to you.
prior entry: JUL 8
Closing Report: Although we may be in a longer term bear market, the chart patterns and indicators are showing that a short term advance is now in order. In recent prior commentary, I stated that the market was merely waiting for the Nasdaq to come down to a major support level which it began to do two to three days ago. Apple and RIMM continue to sell phones like crazy. Apple really should make a move to above 200. As per my recent feelings about oil, I will continue to say that oil is grossly overbought. I also said that once the big guys sell to the average investors oil will drop. This may well have already happened.
Morning Report: (10:30 ET) The following chart from one of my sources will clearly show you the bear market scenario in chart form.
prior entry: JUL 7
Closing Report: Despite the increasing bearishness, I am bullish for the very near term and still expect some sort of short term advance at least. Apple continues strong.
prior entry: JUL 3
Closing Report: This is not the right time to sell. We may very well be close to a short term rally. Over the past several sessions, the market has stumbled around, but in the process of stumbling around, it has actually turned bullish. Do not be fooled by the numbers. Numbers are meant to fool you. While the Dow may look bad, the Nasdaq is not looking so bad. The QQQQ actually looks bullish. The Nasdaq has not yet gone to the March lows. It becomes very possible that the market is simply waiting for the Nasdaq to hit support. Stocks like Apple and RIMM still look good along with IBM.
prior entry: JUL 1
Closing Report: You should notice that the VIX has not closed above that critical 25 level which means that this market has not turned totally bearish. At the present time, just about every analyst and his uncle are bearish on the market. Even the indicators look very bearish. The news on CNBC is bearish every day. The Dow has gone below the March lows. However, despite all of this negative static, the S&P held support today at the March lows. The S&P is more valid than the Dow since the Dow is no longer the same Dow of years ago. The idiots that command the Dow have inserted stocks into the average that are not as valid as those taken out. US Steel was taken out long ago, and look at X now. US Steel is going through the roof. Those who run Wall Street got the public to sell when the Dow sank below support, but the S&P never validated that movement. The powers of Wall Street also got Apple holders to sell at the lows while forming a double bottom over the last three days. The media also made a bearish point concerning the high number of new lows. This can be taken in more ways then just one. It could be that the powers of Wall Street wanted those stocks down to clean out those investors in those stocks. It is getting to the point where indicators are now efficiently being used and manipulated by those who control the Street. It is for that reason that analysts are constantly being proven wrong.
prior entry: JUN 27
Closing Report: Although we have a negative day on the averages, there are certain key tech stocks that are indicating otherwise. Apple is actually looking bullish on the charts. Furthermore, Apple is now very close to making a major deal in China which will produce even more revenue growth. At this point, I can see the probability of Apple at 240. With this I believe that Apple should split its stock. As for the market, we are looking for a bottom between here and 1257 on the S&P.
Midday Report: (11:00 ET) Since the market did not finalize its decline this morning, this was not the bottom. We may have to carry into Monday morning. There is a chance that many stocks will bottom today. However, amidst all of this, we should continue to watch the VIX index to see if it can stay below that 25 level. If the market ends weak today, then we would want to see some capitulation first thing Monday morning. The S&P is still above the March lows with support at 1257 (March low).
prior entry: JUN 26
Closing Report: The Dow went a little below the March lows, but the S&P did not. The S&P ended at about 1283 while the yearly low is at 1256.98. Now consider that the Nasdaq is still about 160 points above the March low. The S&P is more valid than the Dow. It is now likely that the Nasdq is more valid than the S&P. This means that the market could very well bottom either Friday or Monday if there is a big sell off in the morning of either day. Another key factor to watch is the VIX which is getting close to that critical 25 level. Meanwhile, IBM is close to support at 120. Apple has two supports with one at 165 and another at 155. Whether up or down, something big is going to happen here very soon.
prior entry: JUN 23
Closing Report: Every two years or so my son comes to visit, and during this time I go into limbo concerning the market when the market is doing nothing. Such has been the case for the past few days. All that I said in my prior statement has stood pat. There really has been no need to say more for several days. When the S&P broke below the 1400 level, it was bad news. Now, we find ourselves at another critica level and it will be resolved this week, or at least by next Monday. The next day or two are critical. If the VIX goes above the 25 level, then we could very well see another breakdown in the stock market to prior lows for the year. If the VIX goes below the 20 level, it would signal a good short term rally in stocks. Actually any move down toward the 20 level on the VIX would signal a fairly good rally. S&P 1260 would mark the prior low level, but support can be found around the 1310 level over the near term. The market is oversold and money is on the sideline. The transports have been beaten down because of fuel costs along with the financials. Another negative factor is that we are going into the weak part of the year. Nevertheless, we could see some sort of capitulation at this time leading to a good rally. The bears are getting greater in numbers as the economy continues to look bad. At this time, a small bet could be made ready this week, but one would have to watch the VIX for any move in that indicator. You would watch for any down move forming a downward break from its present upward channel.
prior entry: JUN 12
Morning Report: (10:00 ET) On May 21, I stated that buying was not a good idea and that idea stands. The market has now gone to an oversold condition which certainly explains the rally today. However, I have also stated the importance of the S&P 1400 level. I did say that I was concerned when 1400 was broken. The market is just gyrating around that 1400 level after having gone down just below 1350. Only short term buying should be considered here until something more major is resolved to the upside. The major institutions have not been buying and are selling on advances. That is the biggest problem right now. This market will not go through the roof unless the institutions change their buying pattern. On May 21 institutional buying began to break down and this has not changed. A strong rally here could be deceiving.
prior entry: JUN 5
Midday Report: (1:45 ET) The S&P has come back to that critical 1400 level. It now seems to be gyrating back and forth around that level. This may be a good sign. So far this market is not crashing despite all of the negative talk in the news. The Democrats keep saying that the economy is bad and that change is needed. It is all political crap. The housing mess is part of a cycle that has been occurring for decades. Home values go up and then go down to extremes. Also, the banks have screwed up, and this has nothing to do with who is in political office. Bank management has always been manned by a bunch of screwballs. Gasoline also is a problem that has been brewing for years. Even if Gore or Kerry was in office, the situation would be the same as we see it now. People just do not know what economics is all about. They just like to place blame. I majored in economics in college, and the first thing that I realized about this field is that there are way too many factors that exert power to create a situation. The Fed has more power than the President, and yet no one seems to blame the Fed. The President becomes the fall guy for everything. How about Congress. Now there's another bunch of screwballs. Meanwhile, corporate reports continue to be good despite all the static being pumped out in the news by political figures. You should note that the average lines are improving on the major charts. We are in the process of a sideways consolidation which is frustrating but may very well be a bullish sign. Apple, Rimm and IBM continue to hold at high levels which is a good sign for now.
prior entry: MAY 30
Midday Report: (1:30 ET) Despite all of the negative things shot through the media in the past few weeks, the market is doing well as can be seen on any chart. The news makes it sound like the end of the world is coming. Bush continues to get bashed left and right. Bush did not cause the bad housing market nor the errors committed by the banking system. The economy is really not as bad as the Democrats make it out to be. Do not let party politics blind you. When you are in the market, you are a party of one. The party is you and you alone. No party affiliation is going to look out for you. The Democrat primary system has become a sham where the candidate that won the biggest states is going to lose the nomination, and this is because some power is pushing the far left agenda on the American people. In the end, it may affect the market, but not quite yet if the far left minority can be stopped. An increase in taxes will affect the market, because an increase in taxes will reward the losers of America instead of the winners. In the end, we will become a nation of losers if any minority power attains power over the majority. Meanwhile, anything could happen with oil speculation. I certainly would not want to be long oil at this time. Things do reverse in the market. Even if oil takes a tumble, the alternative energy stocks continue to look very good for the longer term such as the uranium, solar, and car hydrogen fuel systems, etc.
prior entry: MAY 21
Closing Report: The S&P broke below 1400 at the close. This is not good for the market and it does not look good on the charts. This is certainly not a good time to buy anything. We should now watch to see if the major rally channel is broken on the Dow and S&P.
Midday Report: (11:45 ET) Although the market may just go sideways for a while, there is evidence that a correction may be unfolding. Every rally at this point should be questioned. The S&P chart and the VIX are both showing that negative break points are dangerously close. In the meantime, uranium stocks continue to look very good as the future for this type of energy gets more positive. I have also noticed that one of my old favorites that got hit badly over the past year has come back to life and that is QTWW dealing with hydrogen power for cars. The techs have become overbought again. As good as the Apple may be, it is once again become overpriced and RIMM is not far behind this analysis. The analysts are continuing to pump these stocks again. Although I have come to detest politics, I must say that things do not look good for Wall Street and I must make comment concerning this. Clinton would be good for Wall Street, but if you believe that Obama would be good then I would say that you are totally naive. Good luck, because you are going to need more than luck on this one. Although I am a conservative, I would consider Clinton's policy as viable. As for Broke Obuma...........
prior entry: MAY 20
Morning Report: (10:30 ET) Although the market has done well over the past week under negative circumstances, the problem is still that it is in a resistance range. The economic news continues to be bland. The S&P now has resistance at the upper range of 1440. The Transports were driven up for mysterious reasons since oil and fuel costs have gone to record highs. Anything in transportation is certainly not a buy here. Overall, almost nothing is a buy at this point although the energy related stocks remain a good hold. ENER has done well. Shanghai remains a big problem as it continues in a downward channel and could break hard to the downside. The Chinese stocks are not good at this time. Just a few months ago, everyone seemed to think that China was the great gold mine of the future. Well, now you can see for yourself what does usually happen when everyone jumps into something. The S&P has some support at the 1400 level and this level should be considered critical. The VIX index is merely showing that people have been rather complacent over the past two weeks as fear has subsided greatly. The institutions have slowed their buying and this could be a danger signal for the coming few months.
prior entry: MAY 13
Closing Report: If you had bought MercadoLibre just a few weeks ago, you would now be sailing smoothly into the future without even having to look at the price each day. I said from the start that MELI was the stock to go with for the long term. Everything else is nothing but trouble. I went with MELI because it had both technicals and fundamentals on the right side.....almost like Apple just before the ipod. MELI will have its ups and downs but the trend is long term bullish. Meanwhile, the S&P has gone sideways at the 1400 level which as I have already stated in prior commentary is resistance. If it can hold in this area a little longer, there is a chance that it could break out to the upside.
prior entry: MAY 9
Midday Report: (1:30 ET) The S&P has faltered just above 1400 and has declined just below the 1400 level which is a critical level. I say it is critical, because it matches the chart based on institutional buying. In other words, the major institutions faltered in their buying at the 1400 level and eased off. The pattern of institutional buying remains in a downtrend. The odds of a decline are increasing unless something major happens on the fundamental front. Since the Fed has already acted, the only hope is that energy prices drop. Since general market weakness usually develops after May, we should be on alert.
prior entry: MAY 7
Midday Report: (2:15 ET) I have been advising caution on the recent advance despite the initial break above 1400 on the S&P. If the advance was to go well above that level, then we could consider it to be a true breakout. Under the circumstances, it would be considered a so-called false breakout if the advance falters so early in the move. I have also noticed that so many analysts are now turning bullish again despite the fact that the economy is not working well. The Fed is stuck in the mud. The slowing of the economy is dictating lower rates, but inflation is starting to get worse across the board. I am talking about real world problems, and these are not being made up by those in control of the market. The people in control of the market could very well be unloading stock on this rally.
prior entry: MAY 5
Midday Report: (12:00 ET) MercadoLibre is the stock to be in for now and for a long time to come. If you have MELI from lower levels, you should hold, because it will go much higher, and after that it will go much higher into the future with stock splits. It was just so right at the 32 level which was the base. At this time, I will not say anything good about any other stock, because all I see out there is garbage that is overvalued. In other words, most stocks are already priced for the future. Unless something good happens with our economy soon, we could be facing some hard times in the market. For now the S&P has gone over 1400 and a near term advance is in order. I see analysts once again saying that Apple will go to 220. Fine with that, but I would not buy Apple or chase it to 220 or 240. Beware of too many analysts telling you to buy on this advance.
prior entry: MAY 2
Midday Report: (12:00 ET) Things are changing quickly in the market day by day but I still fear that the changes are only on the surface. For the past several days, investor fear has subsided. It feels almost as if by design the media has gone into a bullish mode in order to get investors to buy. It is true that the S&P has broken above the 1400 resistance level which merely means that positions can be kept on hold until it drops back below 1400. The problem is that new highs versus new lows as an indicator has not improved into a truly bullish stance. Thus, we should remain cautious. Unless the new highs number gets much better, this market may only be on a short term advance.
prior entry: APR 15
Midday Report: (2:00 ET) The market has held remarkably well with the stochastics line now at oversold levels again. Remember that a move above S&P 1390 would be highly positive. We wait to see if that average can make a run at a possible breakout. The major averages are now just going sideways which is okay as long as there is not another slide to the lows of the year which would mean a probable break down. The new highs have been a problem but at least the numbers are improving. The economy is not in recession despite the real estate problem. The economy is just a series of cycles where things do not just go in one direction. Storms will come and go. I now see smart people buying the real estate that is being dumped by those who got carried away with the euphoria of two years ago. Don Trump was right when he recently advised that people should protect and save their homes at all costs and not panic into giving up at the bottom.
prior entry: APR 11
Morning Report: (10:30 ET) The news becomes more solid for those who have CopyTele. The following press release finally does indicate that there is a future for COPY by way of a solid contract meaning that the company may now actually become an entity of its own rather than an image of solely the founders as was the case over the years.
MELVILLE, N.Y., Apr 11, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- CopyTele, Inc. (COPY), announced today that the Indian Government has approved the previously announced License Agreement between CopyTele and Videocon Industries Limited (Videocon) of India under which Videocon will manufacture and market products, including TVs, utilizing CopyTele's display technology. The approval of the Indian Government was the sole condition to effectiveness of the License Agreement. Under the License Agreement, CopyTele will receive a license fee of $11 million from Videocon and a royalty based on display sales by Videocon. The license fee is payable in installments over a 27 month period, with the first installment of $2 million payable within 15 days.
prior entry: APR 10
Midday Report: (2:00 ET) Just for your reference.....uranium stocks are starting to go higher. The low price issues like DNN and URRE have formed bottoms and seem to want to go higher. This is easy to understand since oil keeps going higher. China reported that it will invest heavily in nuclear power while we sit around arguing about the price of oil. Decades ago, we began going with nuclear power but the U.S. screwed up by allowing these plants to be built around population centers and quake faults. We now have so many laws on the books that it may take an act of God to pass a bill to actually build a power plant out in the wilderness because it might endanger some earth worm species.
prior entry: APR 9
Closing Report: A move above 1390 on the S&P would mark a breakout to the upside. If the SPX can go above that level, we could see a fairly good advance. Is it possible that we are now in just a minor correction? So far the chart patterns are starting to show a more bullish pattern especially with the formation of what seems to look lilke a double bottom over the past several weeks.
prior entry: APR 8
Closing Report: I simply will not let go of my opinion regarding MercadoLibre. MELI will go much higher in the future. Sure, it may waiver around which all stocks may do, but in the end, it will pay off. I say this because its business model has been proven. That is why several firms are interested in buying MELI. Several years ago I went with XMSR and then I went with Apple as it went from the 120 level to 200. I think that MELI is much better because it is making money and it has a solid business model that works. It covers all of South America. Best of all, its price remains close to its initial offer price merely because the general market is bearish. Furthermore, the number of shares outstanding is small. Its chart should be watched since corrections could prove to be buying opportunities.
Morning Report: (10:00 ET) The market has rallied right up to heavy resistance and is now backing off from those levels. Now consider that the only thing that can make this market go higher at this time would be the heavy short position and nothing else. Also consider that we are going into the quarterly reporting period. These corporate reports will show slow growth. This whole scenario is saying that it may be okay to hold but not to buy into new positions. In some cases, it may have been good to sell over the last three sessions. Apple was a sell as it approached the 160 level which can easily be seen on its chart. Dow 12750 is also showing as a definite resistance on the chart. The big question now is whether or not a correction here will be small followed with a greater rally. The market will now pause for the quarterly reports.
prior entry: APR 2
Closing Report: There has not been a clear technical breakout to the upside as yet. It is just overhead about 40 points on the S&P. The rally still has a little room before hitting that resistance. However, the resistance does look quite solid and so we wait.
prior entry: APR 1
Midday Report: (2:30 ET) The upside numbers on the averages are once again deceiving today. Since the financials are up big and since these issues represent a big percentage of stocks, it should become easy to see why the averages are up by so much. The big question is whether or not the financials have formed a real bottom. What ever the case, the indicators are showing that this rally should continue in the averages. However, I do see that many stocks are not up to par on this rally. If the financials can keep going higher, then it would drag other things with the move. This is a trading rally.....go in and get out.
prior entry: MAR 31
Midday Report: (12:30 ET) The banking index is rallying in the aftermath of Paulson's proposal. However, keep in mind that the proposal has not become reality nor will it ever become realilty in the form that was stated. I find it rather naive that people are buying on this kind of news. It just shows that people are craving anything at all that sounds bullish. To me this is not bullish at all. While the financials are strong today, the techs are doing nothing. Note: QTWW, one of my old favorites that got squeezed with the low priced stock slide, is coming back above the $1 level. QTWW has continued to get contracts on its hydrogen fuel devices for autos and it continues to look promising for the future. These people are working and they release information to keep investors informed unlike others that we may know.
Morning Report: (10:30 ET) Paulson's speech this morning could very well be the deciding factor that will drive the market either up or down. So far, the reaction is bland. Focus should be on the banking index ($BKX). If the banking index cannot rally today, then we watch to see if it breaks down to a more serious level since this represents about 20% of the S&P stocks. In my opinion, Paulson's proposal will be a nonevent.
prior entry: MAR 28
Midday Report: (1:45 ET) Last night, Shanghai went through a big ride. It actually sank down to 3357.23 and then recovered to end up for the day. It went right down to my lower range support. Does it mean Shanghai has formed a bottom or maybe started a short term rally? It could be that some sort of advance could occur in China, or it could mean that there will be even more problems further down the road. Maybe some of you can make some sense of this situation. Many of our tech stocks continue to slide. However, I do see that analysts are continuing to pump Apple and RIMM on a daily basis. Is this for real or is it just a scam to get people to jump in at higher prices?
prior entry: MAR 27
Midday Report: (12:15 ET) The debate goes on as to whether or not we have seen the bottom as per CNBC commentary. If you observe the S&P chart along with that of the Nasdaq, you should be able to conclude that the chart pattern and trend remains to the downside suggesting that we are still in a bear market cycle. There has not be an upside breakout as yet. Oracle was another disappointment yesterday. The major stars that are still holding very positive outlooks are IBM, Apple and RIMM. However, it the market goes to new lows, even the stars can be taken down again. Keep a close watch on Shanghai. This is important. CNBC has not reported much on the Shanghai decline. It is down about 40% and this is more than just a correction. It is a bear market in China. There is now a support range in Shanghai at 3400 right down to the 3358 level. If Shanghai goes below 3358, the situation will become very serious. Not much is being said about the plight of the average stock investor in China. However, imagine if our market was down 40%! If our market was down that much, we would now be in a depression. If the Shanghai market does break down completely, it will hit the rest of the world and us. Why? It will because we are now heavily invested in China. It becomes much like the real estate craze of a few years ago. It could turn into a big wash for those that went hog wild into China. If this happens, China will actually prosper in the end by taking over the positions that we took in China. In other words, we could lose our mortgages while the Chinese foreclose on us. We now wait and watch.
prior entry: MAR 26
Midday Report: (2:30 ET) Despite the averages being down, some of the techs are showing some positive movement. So far this advance has held up rather well. If you have MercadoLibre (MELI), you should hold for a much greater move upward. Rumors are still flying about interested parties. MercadoLibre has some very prime space covering South America and firms like EBAY and Google may be interested in buying into it. Over the longer term and most likely even over the shorter term, MELI is the one to go with.
prior entry: MAR 25
Midday Report: (1:30 ET) Apple is now hitting a major resistance line where it had gapped to the downside. Can it overcome this downside gap on the charts, or is it a short again? It may give us the signal for the whole market and so we should watch it now.
prior entry: MAR 24
Morning Report: (10:00 ET) Because the market came back into late last week, it tended to save the day for now. We have a short term advance backed up by short covering. JPMorgan did raise its bid for BearStearns to $10. Now consider how many holders got screwed when JPMorgan bought stock in the open market at $2. With emotions running high, many people sold at $2 to the new pirates on Wall Street. Can the market now break out above resistance which is not far above. We should find out this week.
prior entry: MAR 19
Midday Report: (1:00 ET) The markets will be closed on Friday. If the market cannot rally again into Thursday, then it will mean more trouble.....not that the trouble is really over. The strong rally that we saw on Tuesday is not the same kind of rally that we would see in a bull market. There was very heavy short covering. Those who bought was mostly for short term trading. I still feel that not enough people have been driven to ruin by the crooks of Wall Street. There has not been enough accumulation by the broker-dealers. At this time, the big firms are still wasting their time with the credit mortgage mess. Eventually, the right time to buy will come. I remain positive on the future of MercadoLibre as a good holding stock with solid business growth.
prior entry: MAR 18
Midday Report: (12:30 ET) The rally today is just as deceiving as the last big rally we had recently. However, we will see what happens after the Fed reports. This is nothing but a bear market rally. The big jump today is in the brokerage stocks. Think now! Brokerage stocks! Do you want to own a brokerage stock after what happened to BearStearns? Just a week ago, the BearStearns CEO said that all was okay. Now Consider that Bernie Ebbers went to jail for saying that all was okay. Will the execs at Bear go to jail? The shareholders will sue, but I say that the shareholders will be turned over to the lions. There are so many factors to consider that you will never see the next crushing blow. Keep in mind that Shanghai has broken support and is now going to the next support at 3404. Shanghai is almost 50% down from its high, but CNBC does not emphasize this fact. I have heard nothing about the impact of the Chinese investor. The Shanghai market is in trouble. Back in the old days of a few months ago, stocks like Apple would be up alot on a Nasdaq rally like this. Look at these techs. Sure, they are up today, but look at the amounts. Something is not the same as it used to be. These bear market rallies can be strong, but only because of short covering when heavily oversold and heavily shorted. The rallies are not backed up by new buying. We wait.
prior entry: MAR 17
Morning Report: (10:15 ET) The Bear Stearns situation this morning is a shocker. The news that JP Morgan Chase has taken over BSC for a mere $2 per share is an even greater shock. Once again, investors will lose on the same level as what occurred in Enron. The difference is that this time there will be no jail sentences. Why? Because this time it involves a crooked firm within the Wall Street establishment. The point is that this incident is not the type of scenario that would mark a bottom. The charts of the major averages are now in extreme jeopardy. Any further drop below today's early morning lows will mark a complete breakdown. Gold is up again as the dollar goes lower. The Fed remains in trouble and is backed into a corner. We wait.
prior entry: MAR 14
Midday Report: (1:15 ET) If the S&P goes below the low of 4 days ago, this market is going to take a sharp drop. What happened to Bear Stearns today is just the start of some major problems. The same goes for the Nasdaq chart. If short, stay short. I can now see that stocks like GoldmanSachs are in jeopardy. In other words, the high priced stocks can get hit very hard here. Each brokerage CEO is lying about the true state of affairs. Although Apple Computer remains a good company, its price can still go much lower. There is a good chance that Apple will go to the 100 level and hit a gap there on the chart. GoldmanSachs did go to a new low for the year and would break down if it closes below 155. Watch the charts because a new low for the last three months on the major averages would signal a major decline. The big rally on Tuesday was used as a means to allow broker-dealers to unload stock inventory and go short.
Morning Report: (10:30 ET) I do get worried when I see rallies that are contrived by the Wall Street establishment firms as was the case on Tuesday. That one was easy to pull off because of the heavy short position. It was mainly short covering. I did notice that real buying volume was lacking in the two days after. There should be no buying here unless it is a very special case. The guest commentators on CNBC are merely bouncing around, but Cramer is bearish. Keep in mind that the charts are indicating a bear market that should continue longer. Gold has gone over 1000 just as I had predicted some time ago. Another problem is that oil cannot be stopped. Another major problem is that the Fed is not in tune with the real problem in the market. The Fed is not playing this with the idea that the banks are highly geared with the real price situation in the stock market and the real estate market. In other words, the banks have become broker-dealers in the stock market and this never should have been allowed.
prior entry: MAR 13
Morning Report: (10:30 ET) The futures were once again manipulated during the night in order to crash the market on the open. I am disgusted that no one in the media seems to find fault in the system. How can certain people control the market by acting on prices during the night on the futures with small amounts of capital and get away with it? Well, at this point, we wait to see if the big rally of Tuesday can hold. If it does not, we will go much lower. The Nasdaq is looking negative on the charts. The Dow is showing a double bottom formation, but if it breaks it will take a sharp decline. For now, it may be a good idea to merely observe.
prior entry: MAR 12
Closing Report: The major averages are heading for a two year low in the future unless something really big can occur on the bullish side. The market needs to rally again before the week is over in order to validate the record one day rally on Tuesday. There is plenty of evidence that says that this rally off the floor is only temporary. Of the major averages, the Nasdaq seems to be in the most negative state of affairs. While the Dow looks like a double bottom, the Nasdaq is simply in a down channel which is highly negative. This is not the right time to buy unless there is a major confirmation. This recent rally was contrived and was supported by short covering and not by outright buying for accumulation. However, we should know better over the next two days.
prior entry: MAR 11
Morning Report: (11:00 ET) If the market had been down this morning, there would have been hope. Instead, it was the same old thing again with futures being taken up during the night. This means that this rally is being contrived. It is true that the market is grossly oversold which is part of the "contrive" factor where the broker-dealers are merely going to get more investors to jump in. The tech stocks are simply not responding as strong as would have been the case two or three months ago. This is just the financials being pumped with some Fed help which will not amount to any major significance. I am closely watching the chart on Apple to see how the chart pattern goes over the last few weeks. It is giving me a bearish impression with the possibility of being drawn down to a gap at about the 97-100 level.
prior entry: MAR 6
Morning Report: (9:45 ET) As I have been saying, MercadoLibre (MELI) is the stock to go with for the future. It will eventually go well over 100. It will be just a matter of time. The main headline on yesterday's quarterly was as follows: Fourth quarter revenue increases 73.9 percent to $26.9 million -- Fourth quarter operating income margin increases to 27.1 percent on Income from Operations of $7.3 million -- Fourth quarter net income increases 188.5 percent to $5.3 million. The resistance line which is the the breakout line is now set at the 40 level. If you have it, keep it despite any minor correction. While it may be true that the price will always be affected by the general market, MELI will outperform the market. As you can see from its chart, it was taken down for the sole purpose to unseat investors with the use of the frustration method. Those entities on the inside such as the brokerage dealers and others in control of big capital were accumulating right down to the lows.
prior entry: MAR 4
Midday Report: (1:00 ET) The short term correction that has occurred was normal as far as the averages are concerned as can easily be seen from any chart. However, there are some stocks where the correction may not seem so normal. Many stocks have continually been taken down to the point where investors have been forced out. This kind of price movement is typical of a market that I consider to be crooked. I truly believe that brokerage dealer concerns and hedge funds short these stocks to get people to sell at or near the lows. We have seen this happen in MELI and also in GRMN and perhaps even in MA, etc. There may be some support in the S&P at the 1310 level. On the Dow, it may be at the 12000 level and on NAS it may be at the 2200 level. Keep a watch on these levels, because we are close to all these levels.
prior entry: MAR 3
Morning Report: (10:00 ET) With the early drop this morning and with many stocks spiking down, we could be close to another short term rally. My only favorite stock for the longer term remains MercadoLibre (MELI). I picked this stock several weeks ago as a stock with the potential attributes as compared with the big mover stocks such as Amazon, eBay, etc. The present chart configuration looks very positive and it does need a move above 40 to break out of the pattern.
prior entry: FEB 28
Midday Report: (1:30 ET) Bernanki with the face of doom and gloom was on TV again, and the market went down immediately. Will there ever be a Fed chairman that is capable of smilling? Too much to wish for. The indicators on the major averages are already showing a little overbought for the near term. However, many of the techs are still showing oversold and continue to lag the recent advance. The short interest continues very high. All of this could mean that things are building up for a more meaningful rally once the major averages correct over the near term. We could get a good rally out of this if the shorts begin to cover or have to cover.
prior entry: FEB 27
Midday Report: (1:30 ET) The following news release is just the tip of the iceberg in justifying my remarks concerning the crookedness of the market. It is not just an isolated case as some of the commentators on CNBC may lead you to believe. This story will be buried in order to hush the true situation on Wall Street. I think that deals will be negotiated on this one in order to keep this guy quiet.....in other words, keep him from talking too much.
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A former UBS AG (UBS) institutional client manager pleaded guilty Wednesday to criminal charges in a scheme revolving around trades made based on inside information about upgrades or downgrades by UBS analysts.
Mitchel S. Guttenberg, who was a member of UBS' Investment Review Committee, pleaded guilty to two counts of conspiracy and four counts of securities fraud at a hearing before U.S. District Judge Deborah A. Batts in Manhattan.
David Tavdy, a former trader at day-trading firm Jasper Capital LLC and other firms, is expected to enter a guilty plea in the case later Wednesday, a clerk for Batts said. Tavdy and Guttenberg had been scheduled to go to trial on the charges next month.
"I knew that this information was to be kept confidential," Guttenberg said. "I deeply regret my actions."
A lawyer for Tavdy didn't immediately return a phone call seeking comment Wednesday.
The sentencing guidelines range for Guttenberg on the charges is 78 months to 97 months in prison. Sentencing is set for June 2.
Guttenberg, 42, is one of 13 people charged last year in two separate schemes to allegedly use inside information to make improper trades ahead of public announcements of stock recommendations by UBS analysts and ahead of news of pending mergers and acquisitions in which Morgan Stanley (MS) was acting as an advisor.
Prosecutors had alleged that Guttenberg shared nonpublic information about pending upgrades and downgrades by UBS analysts with Tavdy and Erik Franklin, a former analyst at Chelsey Capital and the operator of Q Capital Investment Partners LP, between 2001 and 2006.
At Wednesday's hearing, Assistant U.S. Attorney Andrew Fish said that Jasper Capital, through Tavdy's trading, made more than $10 million on the inside information. Franklin made more than $4 million trading on the information and Chelsey Capital made more than $3.5 million, Fish said.
Some of the stocks allegedly traded by Tavdy included: Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS).
Franklin pleaded guilty to criminal charges last year.
To date, 11 people, including Guttenberg, have pleaded guilty to criminal charges in the matter.
-By Chad Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-227-2017; firstname.lastname@example.org
prior entry: FEB 26
Midday Report: (12:00 ET) Did you notice the IBM announcement. It will do another stock buy-back and it raised its EPS expectation. Did you also notice how many of the techs were allowed to drop substantially early in the morning before the announcement. Don't you think that maybe many brokerage insiders already knew about the IBM announcement and picked up stock as investors continued to bail out first thing in the morning. You really have to be in tune in order to see just how crooked this market really is. It is gracefully known as having an SEC license to steal.
prior entry: FEB 25
Closing Report: One thing is for sure and that is that the short interest is very high.....perhaps to record levels. The overall feeling coming over the media is a sense of fear that we are in danger. Perhaps, that really means that we should be bullish for the near term. We really should find out soon when considering that most of the indicators are oversold. So far the techs are continually being dragged further into the oversold range.
prior entry: FEB 20
Midday Report: (2:00 ET) It is just amazing how the market works. I still believe it is operating by design by those entities that have capital power. GoldmanSachs was taken down this morning as investors jumped out only to have it come back into the green. Garmin was taken down on good news. The selling was completely overdone. Hard to believe that many investors actually fell for the excuse that despite the blowout good news.....that the company would actually be worried about the competition. Consider this. If Garmin did so well with all the competition already in place for so many years, why would the following months be a problem. It was just a ploy to get people to bail out of a stock that is going much higher.
Morning Report: (10:00 ET) The short term correction goes on but the quarterly reports were good on HWP and GRMN. There still seems to be a conflict between recession and good times amidst the techs. GRMN should be attracted to the 200 day average line at 88 where the upper trendline is now located. Garmin's guidance was well above any of the expectations.
prior entry: FEB 19
Closing Report: The market got just a little overbought on the indicators. It is very possible that a sideways period of correction may be enough to continue the uptrend off a bottom. Keep in mind that many analysts are still calling for a retest of the lows. We shall continue to watch the stochastics line on the major averages to see if it drops back down to an oversold condition without any major drop in the numbers.
prior entry: FEB 15
Midday Report: (2:30 ET) I will always look for clues especially those block trades that occur at the close or shortly after. On Thursday, at the very close I saw GoldmanSachs go across at 176.56 at the lows of the day with a block of 71300 shares worth over 12 million dollars. There was another block of 11700 shares. When you see something like this at the very lows, it is bullish because the entity that is buying is most likely an insider entity such as a broker dealer or perhaps even Goldman Sachs itself. It could also have been a short cover by a broker organization. This is just one of the reasons why I say that the market is indeed crooked and totally deviant slanted in favor of those entities that have SEC licenses. This morning there was more accumulation on early morning selling.
prior entry: FEB 14
Midday Report: (1:00 ET) Whenever a Fed chairman goes on TV and blabbers, you know there is going to be trouble. Bernanke, a pawn of the darkside powers, said that there is more and more concern about the economy and that is all it took for the day.
prior entry: FEB 13
Midday Report: (1:45 ET) The market continues to look good for the short term as I have been stating. On Tuesday, Apple was dropped all day long and now it is going right back up. Yesterday and early today, GoldmanSachs was dropped as insiders accumulated in huge amounts. GS now looks very bullish and could break to the upside at any time. My near term resistance level would be at about the 210 range. Longer term, GS looks even better. Keep in mind that GoldmanSachs is composed of a group of people that are pretty much directly linked to many people within the federal government including the Secretary of the Treasury.
prior entry: FEB 11
Midday Report: (12:00 ET) The market here looks very bullish for the short term. Now that Apple has come off a bottom, Citi has placed it on its top five list. This move now assures that Apple could easily move up to the 135-136 level before very long. The Citibank brokerage establishment most likely bought it heavily at the 120 level last week. The Dow has changed again with the addition of Bank of America and Chevron to replace Altria and Honeywell. In my opinion, the change is silly but they most likely have their motives for doing this. Adding another oil company to the Dow and taking MO out seems like a stupid move as far as quality is concerned. It also does not make sense adding a bank when the banks are in trouble. Unless, there is a motive and most likely there is a motive.
prior entry: FEB 8
Closing Report: When Apple was at the 135 level, it seemed that I was the only one that thought it might crop to the gap at 120. It dropped to that level where I bought it. Apple is a buy and it will go higher level by level as the doped-up investors hang around thinking that the world will end in recession.When Apple as at 200, the idiot analysts were on TV saying that the new target was 220 to 240. Great! Now, there is no one on TV saying that it should be bought. Okay, all of the indicators are saying oversold. The S&P is very close to major support and resistance is at about the 1450 level which is about 100 S&P points up. Mercado Libre is now very close to a small gap on the chart at about 29 to 30. I still believe that smart broker-dealers are picking up the stock as the dumb and dumber are selling. MELI has resistance at about the 40 level....ten points above current levels.
prior entry: FEB 7
Midday Report: (11:45 ET) This was a buy this morning. Apple went right down just below 120 and covered that August gap. Many of the analysts do not place much value on gaps, but I am telling you that you must always be aware of these things. A gap acts like a magnet. Now we wait to see if a rally can develop today. MELI also looks good at this point since it has come down to its baseline price which is a channel 30 to 33. The volume has been very heavy in Apple which means that there was panic selling under 120. It is amazing that these people did not even realize the scenario about gaps being filled. Now that the bad news has been filtered in concerning the present quarter.....what next? It means that if the current quarter turns out according to expectations, the market will then look toward next quarter. This means that we should look out at least six months.
prior entry: FEB 6
Evening Report: Right now, the charts of the major averages may well be on track to forming a W formation. All it would take would be 50 to 100 points on the Dow and about 10 on the S&P. The Nasdaq is also forming the same kind of formation. This means that we could finally see a good rally if things fall into place on Thursday morning. Mercado (MELI) does have solid support at the 30-31 level. Apple support begins at a prior gap on the charts just below the 120. We wait.
Closing Report: The bulls were hoping that Cisco would save the day but Cisco reported that things may slow down next quarter. As a result, Apple did trade below 120 after the close. Will it bottom first thing in the morning? We will need to see negative futures going in and some sort of selling frenzy. At least, a short term rally may be possible.
Midday Report: (1:10 ET) Apple has now broken its recent low of 126.45.
Midday Report: (11:30 ET) Today's rally is a sucker play. It is based within the financials and not the techs. The techs are doing nothing as the economic news continues to be slanted to the downside as per the Bear Stearns downgrade of the autos. While the whole negative slant on the consumer may be a stage show, it will serve the purpose of making the investor do the wrong thing. Early this morning, I once again saw hundreds of investors jumping into Apple on a sharp rally above 132. It becomes easy to find people that will jump into the glory that was. AAPL is going to crack open if it should go below 127. I have already stated that it could go into an area from 100 to 120 in a very short period of time where it could very well become a buy again..
prior entry: FEB 5
Morning Report: (10:45 ET) There is simply no conviction whenever a rally occurs. It becomes a rally in a bear market. Apple was up this morning on the news that more memory was being added to their phone. This just goes to show you how people can be made to jump with news that is really nothing but static. Raising memory and raising the price beyond what is affordable is static news.
prior entry: FEB 4
Midday Report: (2:45 ET) Of course, there will always be some stocks that will go up in a bear market situation. However, for the near term, this market does not look good, because the major institutions are simply not buying to support each rally that we are getting. When a rally begins with short covering and not supported with real buying, we will have a problem.
prior entry: FEB 1
Closing Report: Unless we get super good news, I will continue to say that we have not seen the bottom. This present rally is certainly not what it should be considering that the Fed lowered rates. Now I see short covering which means that brokerage market makers are dumping stock on that short covering. Many of the techs are not responding well to the recent rally.
Midday Report: (12:30 ET) The big problem now with the market is that the tech stocks are not leading the market.....they are merely following. The financials are now leading each rally which is not good because these stocks are merely rallying because of being so oversold. The debacle of the day is that Microsoft wants to take over Yahoo. With all the intelligence at Microsoft, why didn't Microsoft create its own search engine years ago? If they could not create its own search engine, how are they supposed to manage one the size of Yahoo?
prior entry: JAN 31
Closing Report: We had a rally going pushed by the financials, but.....something weird happened near the close. A blip concerning MBIA hit the air and things got haywire. Then, at the close, GOOG reported numbers a little under what was expected. After the close, many stocks began to sell off. At this point, we can only wait until the morning. If there is a problem with MBIA, it could influence the near term. Despite the rally today, I will continue to be bearish until I see something more solid than just short covering with average investors jumping in.
Midday Report: (12:30 ET) We have now seen a short covering rally mainly due to an advance in Home Depot and WalMart. However, the short covering did spread to a majority of stocks. However, short covering is not the basis of a sustainable advance and so we must be careful here. I still see no signs of actual buying volume.
Midday Report: (10:45 ET) Keep tabs on the descending triangle formation of the last several days on AAPL (Apple). This could be a key factor on the tech stocks. This pattern formation is bearish unless AAPL can get above the descending trendline which is now at the 135 level. The bottom of the pattern is at the 127 level. If it breaks above, the market will go up. If it breaks below the flat line of the triangle, it could mean bad news for the market because AAPL has no support below that flat line. We can now only wait to see what happens.
prior entry: JAN 30
Closing Report: The herd of thirsty cattle that jumped into the river got drowned. I see a bunch of bears observing from the shoreline catching fish that got startled out of the water. Note: Observe the Apple chart of the last few days. You will see a descending triangle with a flat bottom. This pattern is very bearish. Unless AAPL can go above 136 soon, it runs the risk of going much lower below the 120 level.
Midday Report: (2:30 ET) With the 50 basis point cut, investors jumped in like a herd of thirsty cattle running to the river. There is plenty of time to wait a little and observe.
Early Morning Report: Unless the Federal Reserve makes this real good today, the market is ready to go down hard. Although the media at CNBC has not been spotlighting the decline in Shanghai, it should be noted that the glory that was is no longer. At this point, I simply do not believe that we have seen a bottom neither there nor here. The tech stocks are not reacting well whenever the Dow advances. On Tuesday, the news from Yahoo was not good. I have taken a look at the Apple chart and I have observed that AAPL never did take a bullish bounce off its recent low. I have also observed on the chart that major support may well be situated at around 102 with an interim support at the 112 level if it should break below 127. We wait for the reaction on the Fed's decision. Extremes in the market can work both ways.
prior entry: JAN 29
Midday Report: (1:45 ET) Being on the defense at this time may be the better bet than going on the offense. Unless the bearish patterns on the tech stocks change very soon, this sector could be in even more trouble. The big question now is whether or not Fed action will change things over the near term.
Midday Report: (12:15 ET) Although so many people are short the market, it is very possible that those who control the market may want even more investors to sell or go short. Meanwhile, the Fed will report Wednesday for the better or for the worse. Everyone is already expecting a 50 basis point cut. According to the numbers, the institutions have continued to sell right up to a few days ago. It would take a very good spark to change that trend. Stocks like Apple are still not looking very good. The techs that were strong late last year have not rebounded in any strong fashion from the bottoms of this month. This could mean that a bottom is yet to come despite all of the oversold indicators.
prior entry: JAN 25
Midday Report: (2:00 ET) The midday decline could turn into a situation where people may get fooled into shorting more. The Nasdaq chart looks better than the Dow. The last hour will tell. This market will have some big turns which is to be expected after all that has happened in the economy. The longer term investors will have to put up with the antics of the day traders such as market makers.
Midday Report: (12:30 ET) This may not be the right time to be short. Many stocks have already done a 30% retracement or more. This advance still has some room until it reaches a major resistance line. However, institutional selling has been a problem until about three days ago when it peaked. Now, the institutions are at a point where it could go either was. The next two sessions could make all the difference in the world. Will the institutions break to the upside on their buying? I will continue to check my sources of information on that important element. Despite the decline from today's highs, the market looks strong for the near term. The Fed may very well be the deciding factor next week.
prior entry: JAN 24
Midday Report: (2:30 ET) We have a continued rally which is another good sign for the near term. However, there are still many disturbing signs that could come into effect once we hit upper resistance in a few days if this keeps going upward. MELI continues to recover with resistance at the neckline at about the 65 level. The tech stocks are still not going very strong into this rally which is a negative. The new highs and new lows indicator remains bearish. The bulls now need the shorts to get frustrated and cover. This could be happening now, but this process is not yet complete.
prior entry: JAN 23
Closing Report: The High Command of those that control the market will have no sorrow for all those poor people that sold early in the day out of fear. What fear am I talking about? I am talking about the fear that was transmitted through the media by design. The rally during the last hour looked good. It was of a classic style. Now we will see if this will carry into Thursday. As I stated earlier, the transports gave the spark earlier in the day with the financials already pushing. The market is oversold and still loaded with shorts who are now waiting for the morning. What will the High Command do with the futures tonight???
Midday Report: (2:30 ET) Have you noticed that the transports are strong today. This is a good sign for the near term indicating that some sort of bottom is here.
prior entry: JAN 22
Closing Report: Are we all enjoying the wild ride? Investors are being tested and manipulated, but this is nothing new. This is an election year, and the politicians in Congress are now going to make it look good by pumping all the aid possible into the market. The world is not going to end. However, this scam process of putting fear in the market will take a toll on many investors. The elements that make up each company have not really changed over a mere three months. Only the psychological element of how people perceive things has changed. People are being manipulated just as a wrestling match audience is manipulated. The words "recession" and "bear market" are being used to manipulate people's fear. We can have a bear market over the near term without having recession, but that is not how the media is playing this game. As I have stated recently, greed has always been a problem when carried to excess. Apple reported good earnings but implied that there might be a slowdown. That did it. What did people expect? People are always expecting more and more and more....... Squeeze more and more golden eggs from the goose. When the poor goose gets just a little tired. Well, let's kill the damn goose. We should still see some sort of rally soon that will further confuse people. When that advance hits upper resistance, we will most likely have another drop.
prior entry: JAN 20
Sunday Report: I am going to wipe the slate clean of all stocks and I am going to keep a watch on only one stock for the present. I find it to be an error to believe in CEO's and any of their reps along with anything said by analysts tied to these firms. I am simply going to chose a stock that has both future sales potential and the technology to make it happen. I did this with Starbucks way back. I did it again when XMSR was at the $2 level. These stocks had the fundamental potential to succeed with a product that was ready to deliver. What I see in most stocks is merely a promise of something that may happen months and years from now. This is not good enough. I have picked one stock for now and will place it in my stock watch. I will update the page with news as it is released. All else will go. The stock that I will go with is MercadoLibre (MELI).
prior entry: JAN 17
Closing Report: The Dow is looking to match the yearly low at the 12000 level. Monday is a holiday. I noticed that MELI was taken right down to the 100 day average line. This stock based in Argentina remains good for the longer term now that everyone that jumped in on the recent advance has bailed out at the base line. I still believe that we will not see a recession until taxes are raised. We will see a slower economy which will tend to keep growth tech stocks down.
Midday Report: (12:30 ET) Just a commentary on the American state of mind..... Intel reports a 51% increase in profit from last year and the stock went down because analysts were expecting a little more. Think about that! The greed for more has gone completely out of hand in this country. We want more and more. Squeeze and squeeze more until the expectation goes beyond reality. Do you see the joke of it all? We now see this in our lives. Now consider a company like Apple. It has done well, but how much more can it give? What will happen if Apple falters against the expectations of analysts? Very soon the expectations behind ipod sales will not be enough. We are now basing the price based on projections far into the future. Should you pay for a stock based on the expected profit five years from now? Apple will have to come up with a super computer iphone very soon. At least, Bernanke implied no recession....just slow growth. Since so many people have now been brainwashed into believing otherwise, he may just be right on this one. Almost every analyst is now warning of a more than 50% chance of recession this year. However, even slow growth may produce a mini-bear market because of our greedy expectations.
Midday Report: (10:30 ET) Options expiration is Friday which means that speculators are going to get cleaned out. We can most likely expect a rally early next week. However, if such rally should take place and it goes to any major resistance line, it would be a chance to either sell or go short on the high flying growth stocks. For the very short term, Friday may be a good day to pick up. However, the more conservative people should stand aside. Bernanke is on TV trying to answer the same old stupid questions from people that do not know any better. It looks bad. His face looks dragged out....like he hasn't slept for days. Will we ever get a Fed chairman that can show some expression. His gray hairs and wrinkles have increased which is even worse. Will someone bring in a cosmetics expert instead.
prior entry: JAN 17
Midday Report: (2:00 ET) As I implied in my prior commenatry, the control forces have been creating rallies by the use of overnight futures for the sole purpose of unloading stock on each rally. We are now very close to breaking some very critical support levels as you should be able to see clearly on the Dow chart or even the S&P chart. Take note of the August lows on the charts. Even if we get a more sustained rally of more than one day, we would then have to observe for institutional selling as the level reached up to resistance trendlines. You should also note that the average lines on the major averages are now all leaning downward which is a big negative. We are very close to entering (if not already) a bear market scenario. This indication on the charts is disappointing. It simply means that we should hold back and consider carefully before taking any new steps. It does seem as if the alternative energy field remains positive. We shall now see how it goes with Intel since IBM has already presented positive results. You should also note that Apple is being taken down after most analysts revealed that the target was 220 plus. We should note that the yearly low on the Dow was just under the 12000 level. The S&P is showing more weakness since the S&P is now very close to the yearly low. Institutional buying has also decreased which adds even more weakness to the picture. We are on alert for some serious trouble ahead.
prior entry: JAN 14
Midday Report: (1:00 ET) Why was the market up this morning when the close on Friday was so weak and dismal. The reason......because the market is crooked and it is under the control of deviant powers that have strong capital resources. The capital resources that these people have caused the following to occur. At the close on Friday, these parties cleaned up stock at the lows as the public dumped on the worries of the day. Then, last night, these parties with the capital that they have available were easily able to raise the futures so that a rally would occur first thing in the morning. Is this a conspiracy theory? It is reality. It is legal under present laws. Is it unethical? What do you think? The people are being screwed on a continual basis. If only you could hear from all those people that get screwed each day. You do not hear from them, because the system is geared to keep each and every one of you fragmented (not united). The people at CNBC have no mercy for the losers. The commentators on TV only want to hear from the winners. That is why those in control will always have control. Investors are not united as may be the case with the upper management parties of the brokerage houses and hedge funds. The problem with the current pattern is that it is not bullish when I see these insiders buying for short term purposes and then unloading on the rally and then continuing the process over and over again. Intel is a good example of just how crooked the system. Look at how it dropped all the way to the 22 level where it formed a bottom on Friday. This was done with the help of some key analysts that trashed the stock a few weeks ago. I wonder how much these analysts are getting paid under the table to cause investors to lose such great amounts of money. I find it amazing also that investors gave much more credibility to Greenspan's mysterious babbling than what is being given to Bernanke's plain language. In my opinion, those that run banks are perhaps the most stupid of all mangement. So why should the Fed be any different. Look at the banking mess. Who in hell's name is running the banks. What kind of mentality is it that would give advantages to bums off the street and be willing to take away advantages from established customers. Think about it. The idea was actually to build up numbers by getting more people to get loans. It was a numbers game. These bankers that sit in their ivory towers did not even realize that building up numbers to make the base look good only causes the formation of a weak foundation. The word went out to each branch to get more loans created so that it would look good to the Fed so that more capital could be made available. The BofA tried to beat Citi and Citi tried to beat BofA in the numbers race. I have no respect for the banking industry nor for the Fed that sponsors such stupidity.